Gold and Silver Market News and Reviews
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By: Peter Cooper, Arabian Money
If anything gold and silver forecasters are probably too cautious about the outlook for 2012. This is not surprising after the volatility of 2011 which saw record highs for both metals but a collapse later in the year that left gold up 10 per cent and silver down around the same amount for the year.
The worry for precious metal investors is that deflation and recession will overcome the inflationary forces of money printing in 2012 and limit the upside for prices.
By: Jeff Clark, Casey Research
It wasn't a fun week for gold. By the close on Friday, the metal was down 6.7% (based on London PM fix prices), the biggest weekly decline since September. It got downright irritating when the mainstream media seemingly rejoiced at gold's decline. Economist Nouriel Roubini poked fun at gold bugs in a Tweet. Über investor Dennis Gartman said he sold his holdings. CNBC ran an article proclaiming gold was no longer a safe-haven asset (talk about an overreaction).
While the worry may have been real, let's focus on facts. Have the reasons for gold's bull market changed in any material way such that we should consider exiting? Instead of me providing an answer, ask yourself some basic questions: Is the current support for the US dollar an honest indication of its health? Are the sovereign debt problems in Europe solved? How will the US repay its $15 trillion debt load without some level of currency dilution? Is there likely to be more money printing in the future, or less? Are real interest rates positive yet? Has gold really lost its safe haven status as a result of one bad week?
By: Jeffrey Nichols
Forecasters, whether of the economy, or the stock market, or the gold price are frequently wrong . . . but we are never in doubt. It is up to you - the investor - to listen, evaluate, doubt, and make your own decisions about gold’s future price and the role the metal might play in your own investment portfolio and personal savings plan.
With this warning, let me tell you my own forecast:
I have no doubt that gold will move up sharply in the years ahead, reaching heights that might lead some to label me a “gold bug.” I believe that the price of gold will, over the course of this decade, reach a multiple of recently prevailing prices.
Prices of $3000, $4000, and even $5000 an ounce are very likely during the course of this long-lasting bull market, a bull market that still has years of life left to it.
By: Peter Cooper, Arabian Money
With gold prices hitting a devilish $1,666 per ounce today, a seven-week low for the precious metal, some explanation is called for as the worry over money printing by central banks has seldom been higher.
Blame the euro if you are a gold bug. The sinking euro is boosting demand for the US dollar. And the greenback and gold – and all other commodities – usually head in opposite directions.
By: Jeff Clark, BIG GOLD
A young woman – let's call her Andrea – inherited some money from her father in late 1997. She was only nineteen at the time. Not knowing the first thing about investing, she kept the money in stocks and bonds as her father had, wanting to hold on to it until she really needed it. She played it "safe."
She got married last year and so began to withdraw the money. She was pleased to see a chart from the broker that showed her portfolio was up about 20%. While admittedly not a great return over 12 years, her account had nevertheless survived both the 2000 tech crash and the 2008 market meltdown. She knew not all investors could not say the same thing.
Andrea began spending the money, thankful that she'd saved the money to start a family. But a cruel reality slowly began to set in: the money didn't seem to be going very far. She couldn't quite put her finger on why, but it all clicked when she saw the lofty price of a new SUV she wanted. She remembered her Dad's favorite vehicle back in the day – a Ford Ranger pickup – and recalled him boasting that he paid only $8,500 for it in 1992. A comparable vehicle today costs more than twice as much.
By: Jeff Clark, BIG GOLD
This may sound sensationalistic, but I think the odds are very high that, on average, gold producers will sell in the $200 range before this bull market is over. With most of them trading between $20 and $40, the returns could be tremendous. And while the typical junior won't reach the same price level, their percentage returns will be much greater and potentially life-changing, as you're about to see.
The timing of this article may seem incongruous, given the recent weak performance of gold and gold stocks. But that was the identical situation in each of the past manias: both the metal and the equities didn't excel until the frenzy kicked in. The following documentation is actually a fresh reminder of why we think you should hold on to your positions – or start accumulating them, if you haven't already.
By: Andrew Mickey
Gold prices are on the verge of a significant breakout.
But it’s not because the U.S. national debt just passed $15 trillion, Europe’s about to announce its next doomed-to-fail bailout plan, negative real interest rates, or anything that will keep gold headed much higher in the long run...
It’s much simpler: There’s too much money and not enough gold.
This has happened a few times before. Each time, gold prices surged and silver prices exploded.
And now, it’s about to happen all over again.
By: Jeff Clark, BIG GOLD
Most gold followers know the metal has a seasonal tendency to perform better in the fall and winter than in the spring and summer. Indeed, since 2001, the annual high for the gold price has occurred after Labor Day every year except two (2006 and 2008). Further, that peak was hit in November or December in seven of the last ten years.
So, are we destined for new highs in the gold price between now and New Year's Eve? And what about gold stocks?
Perhaps one way to answer the first question is to determine if gold has been following its seasonal price trends so far this year. If it has, we might have a reasonable expectation of higher prices ahead. Let's take a look…
By: Jeffrey Nichols
Gold is coming to life again - and looks poised to move higher in the weeks and months ahead. Having fallen precipitously from its all-time high just over $1,923 an ounce in early September to a recent low near $1,540 in early October, a peak-to-trough correction of some 20 percent, gold has been, of late, range-bound, trading between $1,640 and $1,680.
Having moved to the top of this range and even slightly higher, I sense gold is just now resuming its long march upward, a march that could, before long, carry the price to the $1,850 region and perhaps even to its historic peak of $1,923 by the end of the year.
By: Jeff Clark, BIG GOLD
Like I told my son's friend, nothing is guaranteed. But until real interest rates are positive again, government leaders instigate honest solutions to our debts and deficits, the global economy becomes an engine of growth, the sovereign debt issues in Europe are genuinely resolved, and global currencies – especially the US dollar – are strong again, I'm buying gold.
By: James Turk
In one important respect, gold is like any other asset. You want to buy it when it is undervalued, and sell it when the opposite is true – when it becomes overvalued. Thus, knowing how to accurately value gold is essential for sound portfolio management.
Because gold is money, its value cannot be measured with the standard techniques used to evaluate investments. Gold is not an investment because it does not produce any cash-flow. It is a sterile asset. Consequently, gold does not create wealth, nor for that matter, does any national currency create wealth. Currency in all its forms – whether fiat or gold – is wealth, held in the form of deferred purchasing power. This store of value function is one of any currency’s most important tasks.
By: Casey Research
At the Casey Research/Sprott Summit When Money Dies, Louis James spoke with Sprott Inc. founder Eric Sprott on the risk involved in holding money in banks, and the likely future of precious metals stocks, Gold and Silver.
By: Shivom Seth
It is a buying opportunity for silver. The white metal, which rose at more than twice the rate of gold last year, should continue to outperform its more lustrous peer, say analysts. In the process, it has narrowed its long term gap with gold, known as the gold-silver ratio, although this is currently well above the level it fell to earlier in the year.
The gold to silver ratio measures the relative value of the two precious metals. The higher the ratio, the more expensive gold is relative to silver. On the other hand, the lower the ratio, the more expensive silver is relative to gold.
By: Clive Maund
It now looks like we were a little too bullish in the last update, for the way gold has acted over the past week suggests that another sharp drop is imminent before the dust finally settles on this reactive phase, that it likely to take it to or some way below its recent panic lows.
On gold's 4-month chart it is now apparent that a bear Pennant has been forming since the panic bottom, with the weak upside volume portending an imminent breakdown and steep drop. A reader pointed out to me during last week that gold's panic lows occurred in thin trading on the Hong Kong market, and for this reason we do not have to factor in the tail of the hammer candlestick when deciding where to draw the boundaries of the Pennant. The measuring implications of this Pennant call for a drop at least to the vicinity of the intraday lows of the Reversal Hammer and possibly somewhat lower towards the $1520 area - at this point the decline should have completely run its course and we will be looking to buy aggressively.
By: Clive Maund
It now looks like we were a little too bullish in the last update, for the way silver has acted over the past week suggests that another sharp drop is imminent before the dust finally settles on this reactive phase, that it likely to take it to or some way below its recent panic lows.
By: James Turk
The AIER lecture, Bullion and Beyond: A World of Choices for Gold Investors, was given at the E.C. Harwood Library.
By: SGTbull07
Interview with David Schectman, the founder of Miles Frankiln pecious metals, who says the bottom is precious metals is near and that current prices are "a steal".
By: SGTbull07
Interview with Bix Weir : Gold, Silver, Mining Stocks and more.
By: Jeff Clark, Casey Research
Let’s just admit it: we’re invested in gold stocks not just to make money, but for the chance to change our lifestyles. And with their lackadaisical year-to-date performance, one may begin to wonder if they’re still going to bring the magic.
While the answer will depend as much on the individual investor as it does the market, let’s look at some historical patterns to get a hint as to how similar or different our situation is to past bull markets, as well as what realistic expectations we can hold about the future.
By: Bud Conrad, Casey Research
Poor Ben Bernanke. The greatest financial train wreck in history is going to happen on his watch, and it will be mostly his predecessor’s doing. But not the work of Alan Greenspan alone. The Washington elite and their compulsively clever counterparts around the world have set the US (and global) economy up for a currency crisis of gargantuan proportions.
When?
Soon.
By: Jan G, Admin
Chris Duane has just released one of the most comprehensive articles ever written about the events of 9/11. If you have the courage to face the painful evidence of what actually happened on September 11, 2011, now is the time, this is the article.
By: Jan G, Admin
Silver Shield’s Final Warning!
By: Jeff Clark, BIG GOLD
I outlined last week the increasingly bullish consensus among analysts about gold stocks. The same pattern exists with gold itself; growing numbers of analysts have either joined the movement or have upped their bullish outlook.
The following comments and developments have all been reported just this month. It presents quite a convincing case when one strings them together like this. Keep in mind that this is what these analysts and managers are telling their clients.
By: Brandon Smith
Only now, after three years of roller coaster markets, epic debates, and gnashing of teeth, are mainstream financial pundits finally starting to get it. At least some of them, anyway. Precious metals have continued to perform relentlessly since 2008, crushing all naysayer predictions and defying all the musings of so called “experts”, while at the same time maintaining and protecting the investment savings of those people smart enough to jump on the train while prices were at historic lows (historic as in ‘the past 5000 years’).
By: Silver Shield
We are going to see a huge shift in silver investor mentality. (By the looks of today’s action it could be today.) Silver buyers will no longer be “nerdy”guys talking about Austrian Economics or “momentum monkeys”trying to make a quick buck trading metals. It will be wide eyed panic buying as people wake up to the fact they everything they have ever worked for is being destroyed by the massive money creation from the world’s central banks. Once people see that the only answer the bankers have is to print more money and that the only answer the politicians have is to spend more money, they will see that there is no safe place on earth to store their wealth other than real tangible assets. And of course the best real tangible asset is silver.
By: Jeff Clark, BIG GOLD
Gold and silver have both cooled from their recent highs, so many investors are asking if it’s time to pounce with their buy orders. Is there really a way to know if you’re getting a good price, one that allows you to buy with confidence? I think there is.
Many precious metals investors know that gold and silver prices tend to be soft during the summer months – but what many don’t realize is that that trend is measurable. By looking at what prices have done over each summer since the bull market began in 2001, we can recognize what a bargain price might look like today.
By: Andrey Dashkov, Casey Research
On June 13, the CEO of Newmont Mining (NYSE:NEM), the world’s second largest world gold producer, expressed his expectations of gold hitting US$1,600 this year, and higher next year. UBS Investment Research goes out on a limb with near-term projections: its one-month gold forecast dropped from $1,500 to $1,475, but its three-month projection is up from $1,400 to $1,600. GFMS projects that gold will reach around $1,620 by the end of this year.
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